Fresno State +3.5 -120 5.5% MAX POD
The good news for Fresno is the weather should have no impact on this game, which is rare for Boise at this time of year, but excellent for Fresno State. Boise vs. top 50 offenses is 1-2, and their only win was against Fresno State without Jake Haener, and without Jake Haener Fresno is not a top 100 offense. They played 5 games without Haener went 2-3, and failed to score more than 21 points with the exception of their game against a horrible New Mexico team and turned the ball over 9 times in those games. Fresno also without their defensive captain Evan Williams in the first meeting and will return for this game.
Fresno’s defense is a top unit they rank 35th in success rate, and their only weakness is defending the run, which BYU with a worse run defense recently stopped Boise. I think Fresno’s run defense will be pumped up for this one after giving up 300 yards to Boise. They did hold Taylen Green to 22 yards on 11 carries in the first game, and there is only more tape on Green at this point for Fresno to scheme a game plan. Fresno State without their defensive captain really held their own early in the game against Boise holding Boise in the red zone multiple times. This is going to be a close game and I would rather have the team with the better more experienced QB. Fresno State also has a significant advantage in special teams ranking 14th compared to 104th.
Jeff Tedford also the better head coach here with experience in the MW Championship game. In fact Tedford 7-2 ATS as a road dog 2017-2019 when he was at Fresno and in 2018 they lost to Boise on the road and came back and beat them in OT on the road in the Championship game. Andy Avalos is still a very young head coach in just his second season and first time in a game this big. He is just 1-4 ATS in games where Boise is favored by less than a TD losing 4 outright. Boise has not been in this situation yet this year. They were a +2 dog twice, and went 1-1. In what is supposed to be a tight game Fresno has the advantage in a very key area.
